The Misery of Uncertainty
Perspectiv’s Andy Wilkins muses on the quote that “most people prefer the certainty of misery to the misery of uncertainty”…
Is it so that “the certainty of misery is preferred to the misery of uncertainty”? I can’t recall exactly where I first came across this phrase – I think it was part of a humorous advertisement for an investment company.
A Google search for the source provides rich pickings to choose from, including one of Ian Stromsmoe’s favourites: a Forbes article on how David Bowie created his own unique niche in music and fashion by somehow remaining unclassifiable and timeless in genre, style and appeal. He grew up in the 70s with Ziggy Stardust, Moonage Daydream and Major Tom. Despite, or perhaps thanks to, his “uncertainty”, Bowie remains a global cultural icon.
For a consultancy firm like us in the business of helping people develop their capabilities to address complex problems such as those associated with performance improvement, innovation, and change, this phrase has been bouncing around our heads for more years than I care to remember: The majority of people prefer to be miserable than to step into an uncertain future. A future that could of course be better than the present or worse.
Perhaps this is what is sometimes described as comfortable complacency: a state where the present is not painful enough to leave, but painful enough that we have learned how to manage it. It is not quite misery, but nor is it progress. It is the tolerable discomfort of the familiar.
This is where many people, teams and organisations can remain for far longer than they realise. The current way of doing things may be frustrating, inefficient or limiting, but at least it is known. The alternative requires movement into uncertainty, and uncertainty asks more of us than endurance does.
And there is the rub. What ‘better’ means is different to different people. Much of what can be observed in people’s behaviour derives from our approach to education that seems to want to prepare people for a fairly stable environment. Many people are taught to look for correct answers, predictable outcomes and stable knowledge, while real-world leadership often requires judgement, experimentation and adaptation.
But the reality is a world characterised by VUCA – volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity – which one might summarise as ‘turbulence’. A world where information has never been more accessible on the one hand, but with so much changing on the other. Uncertainty.
Taking a Janusian Approach
‘The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time.’
– F. Scott Fitzgerald
In our approach to moving forward with complex situations, we find it helpful to hold more than one (and often opposing) viewpoints in mind at one time. We sometimes refer to this as the need to be ‘ambidextrous’ or ‘Janusian’ after the Roman God Janus, who had to look in opposite directions at the same time.
Next time you are faced with a complex situation, the challenge is not to choose between certainty and uncertainty, but to become more capable of working with both.
In the words of David Bowie, to “turn and face the strange”.
